|
I get some of my best sports gambling concepts from
non-sports gambling books. Thats not really surprising,
since there are so few serious works addressing sports
handicapping and gambling. Of all the various gambling
related disciplines, sports gambling is perhaps the most
complex. The paucity of written work on the subject is
downright shameful in light of that fact. Since theres so
little specific literature available some of the best
theoretical resources available to the serious sports
gambler can be found in books written for the serious poker
player.
Poker literature is especially applicable to the sports
handicapper because both can be very profitable for a
knowledgeable, experienced and skillful pro. Poker expert
Bob Caro has noted that while there are a number of
professional gamblers specializing in poker and sports
wagering there's not a single person who can honestly say
they play roulette for a living.
The simple fact is that the house edge in roulette cannot be
overcome by any combination of skill, experience and/or
discipline. When you win, it is because you get lucky.
When you lose, its because you didnt get lucky. To add
another Caro concept to the equation, the decisions that the
player makes when playing roulette simply dont matter"at
least in terms of overcoming the theoretical edge enjoyed by
the house. In the long term, it doesnt matter whether you
choose red or black, odd or even, or certain numbers. You
may get lucky with your choices or you may not, but these
decisions do not impact the house edge one iota.
Caro argues that one of the poker players most valuable
weapons is discipline at the table. The reason for this is
that the average person goes into a casino for precisely the
opposite reason"he wants to have some downtime away from the
discipline and order that circumscribes the rest of his
life. He wants to down a few cocktails, leer at some
cocktail waitresses, and throw some money around for awhile.
Hes not worried about theoretical return on investment, pot
odds or other concepts of serious play. Casinos exist for
the sole reason of providing him all of the escapism he
wants while they slowly use their house advantage to make a
profit off of him. Granted, poker operates differently in
terms of the house advantage but the motivation that drives
the recreational gambler to the poker table is no different
than that which drives him to the slot machines or blackjack
layout.
And the lesson that Caro gives to the would be expert poker
player is the same lesson that Im going to give to you here.
The first step toward becoming a successful sports gambler
is to approach it with the same discipline that youd
approach any other job. You must start to think about
sports and sports wagering like a professional and not like
a recreational gambler. The greater degree to which you can
apply a regimented framework to the sports betting process,
the greater degree to which you will be successful at it.
Now, I have no problem with recreational sports gamblers"or
any other recreational gamblers for that matter.
Recreational sports gamblers are, in fact, crucial to the
survival of those of us who do this for a living. Theyre
not our prey"like they are for the poker professional"but a
thriving recreational sports gambling industry keeps the
sportsbooks in business, and what I do is utterly useless if
my book doesnt pay me.
If your goal is to bet recreationally, that's great. Unless
you have the dedication, desire and discipline to approach
it at a profession a recreational approach to gambling is
ultimately better for most people. You might benefit from
some greater money management discipline, but at the end of
the day as long as you don't bet more than you can afford to
lose it's really no big deal.
Ross Everett is a noted freelance writer and a staff
handicapper for Sports-1 sportsbook, where he consults on
setting NFL lines.
He's a highly regarded authority on NFL betting in addition
to college football and hockey. He lives in Las Vegas,
Nevada with his two dalmatians and a Jack Russell Terrier.
|